I keep listening to various investors about how this is a buying opportunity. Yeah, many are brave at the beginning. We will see how brave they get in two months which is when bravery will probably be good.
Stocks are barely went down. Yes, airlines and hotels are down but regular stocks are not down that much. When the Dow is approaching 10,000, then I will be interested. I have a list of about 200 stocks that I am tracking and they have a long way down.
People in the US are just starting to get nervous about the Coronavirus. Did they stop going to large gatherings? No. Did NBA stop having fans at the games like they did with soccer in Italy? No. Did people stop going to restaurants? No. Did people stop taking subway in New York? No. So Coronavirus will continue to spread.
In the US, we officially have more than 1,000 cases. If we continue business as usual, we will have 100,000 cases in two weeks and 1 million cases in four weeks.
Then and only then people’s behavior will change. They will stop going on vacations. They will stop going to Cinemas. They will stop going to restaurants. In other words, they will start acting similarly to the Chinese. As a result, many businesses will get decimated. They will start defaulting other their loans. And of course, they will fire a lot of people.
Then, I will start looking at the list of 200 companies that I like and start buying them hand over fist. In the meantime, I am watching how much money the Fed will print to fight this and how high gold will go. It is time for gold to shine. Gold miners still don’t have a pulse but when they get it, watch out.