I’ve spent my investing career accepting improbable events when the world thinks such events are impossible. I’ve also spent a lifetime hiding from popular investment ideas. Often, when contemplating unpopular investing ideas, you don’t have to get the timing right—you just have to be early enough to be prepared for them and avoid becoming trapped looking the wrong way.
I remember back in early 2009, when I told people that QE would solve all financial problems—at least in the short term. People laughed at me—at the time, the banks in America alone had something like $1 trillion in negative equity and it looked as if the financial system would come apart at the seams.